Monday, August 28, 2006

Fantasy Football Watch!

So, every year, there are certain players that really grabs a fantasy football player's imagination, captivating us with their reported prodigious talent and inviting us to dream about the league championship that these perceived studs will garner for us. A few years ago, I held onto Donte Stallworth, drafting him way too early in 2003 for a measly 485 yds and 3 TDs (who, incidentally, is going to have a great year if his trade to the Eagles doesn't get Suggs-ified). Last year, I got the bright idea to draft Ashley Lelie, expecting him to surpass his disappointing 2003, and sure enough, he pulls out 1000+ yards and a nice 7 TDs, which is not bad for a mid-round WR.

In a game of luck, where any given Sunday can result in two touchdowns for the freakin' fullback, the fun really lies in playing your hunches. Not only does it draw you into the game (who doesn't love cheering on their sleeper candidate. The Ron Dayne fans unite!), but also there can be huge value in playing your crazy breakout possibilities in the fantasy battle. For instance, if you predicted that Larry Johnson would be such a hoss for the last 8 games, or that Carson was going to blow up; or how about digging deeper, that Plaxico, Jurevicius, or T.J. Houshmanza-whatever would be in the top 75 in fantasy scoring, then you probably finished better than I did.

So, in light of the value of the mid to late round sleeper in fantasy, here is an unordered list of players that I'm really high on for an excellent 2006:
  • Drew Bennett, WR (Titans): This receiver, in a contract year, loves getting the ball from Billy Volek. With average speed compensated with plus movement and great hands, he's going to have a career year. I'm expecting 1000+ yards and probably 8 TDs.
  • Braylon Edwards, WR (Browns): Here's a guy who posted 512 yards, missing the last 4 games, and having 4 games with two or less catches. With those pathetic Browns QBs last year, he still had four solid games, including 2 TD in his last game of the season in week 13. This guy is going to be Charlie Frye's favorite weapon.
  • Byron Leftwich, QB (Jaquars): If he can stay healthy, this guy is going to be in the top 5 QBs list. He's got mobility, accuracy, and throwing strength that is just scary good. However, if he goes down, look out for David Garrard.
  • Matt Jones and Ernest Wilford, WR (Jaguars): These guys are going to be the recipients of the accession of Byron Leftwich.
  • Julius Jones, RB (Cowboys): Why is this guy a sleeper? Because you can usually get him in the third round while lesser backs will be snatched up. This guy is in a Parcells offense, and even if T.O. gets his head out of his arse, Jones is going to snag a bunch of yards and probably 2-3 TD opportunities each game. In his third year, which is the year that most elite RB's make their presence known, he's going to be the main back who will enjoy the relaxed middle of the field due to the improved line and the presence of two top WRs in big D.
  • Ashley Lelie, WR (Falcons): Why do I do it to myself every year? Lelie, who has plus skills in everything he does, seems to underachieve, even counting his decent 2005. Here's the reason he's on the list - he's going to be available in the late rounds, he's got a QB with something to prove passing (Vick, who I got in the 11th round!), and he's just too talented to be sub-1000 yards and 7 TD's. He's worth a fly in the late rounds. Really. He'll do something.
  • Chester Taylor, RB (Vikings): Why is Peter King so into this guy? Here's the reasons: he comes from the Ravens, where previous draftees include Priest Holmes and Jamal Lewis; he's a career backup, so he's fresh; he's got a monster of a line in Minnesota; he's going to be the feature back in a lineup that is going to be run heavy. Look out for this guy, a sure 80+ yards a game, 1 TD each, a monster of guy who's ready to shine. A value in the mid-rounds.
  • Randy McMichael, TE (Dolphins): He's going to be to Culpepper what any Vikings TE is, a sure thing.
  • Alex Smith, TE (Bucs): Chris Simms is going to have a hard time there, and Smith is going to be his security blanket.
  • Brandon Jacobs, RB (Giants): He's a definite draftee for anyone taking Tiki, but here's why he may be a valuable player...TIKI DOESN'T WANT THE CARRIES! Since Tiki has publicly lobbied for less carries, someone has gotta take it. However, here's the logic: Tiki is a team player who cares about the win-loss column of the Giants (a fierce loyalist to the team), he wouldn't do this without faith in his co-runners. Jacobs has shown guts in his few runs during his rookie campaign, averaging 2.6 yards per carry, but he picked up 7 TD's in only 38 carries. Not just a goal-line hawk, he's going to get plenty of more opportunities to shine in the Giants offense. I'm hoping he learns to catch so that he can become a Edge like tool for young Mr. Manning.
These guys have promise, just as, well, anyone coming into 2006. Keep your eyes peeled, though, since there's going to be that surprise guy out there that just explodes. Of the contract year guys, the only one I'm really interested in is T.J. Duckett. He's going to try to shine in the overloaded Redskins backfield, but he's wanting the money, and if Portis' injury is more severe that currently being speculated, then T.J. is going to have to earn the money. Also, the griping factor may come into play, thus making the possibility for an ugly, Lavar Arrington situation to occur, driving Skins fans batty and thus making me happy.

That's all for now. Happy drafting.

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